Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by...?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:00:17 UTC, Polymarket traders price December 31 (14.5%), October 31 (4.3%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Thu, 31 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 14.5% | 14.5¢ | 85.5¢ |
| October 31 | 4.3% | 4.3¢ | 95.7¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $23K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Saudi Arabia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of Saudi Arabia directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed be…
Sources
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