Russia reinstates diesel export ban by October 31?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 10:03:48 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (3.5%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Sun, 01 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3.5% | 3.5¢ | 96.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $909
- Closes:
Resolution rules
In 2026, the Government of the Russian Federation imposed a temporary ban on exports of diesel fuel by fuel producers, which has since been extended several times, most recently through October 31, 2026. On October 10, 2026, the government partially lifted the ban, permitting Russian fuel producers to export up to 500,000 tons of diesel fuel (see: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-10/russia-lifts-ban-on-diesel-exports-as-part-of-trump-putin-deal). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Government of the Russian Federation issues a decree, resolution, or equivalent official action revoking, suspending, or terminating the October 10, 2026 relief permitting fuel producers to export diesel fuel, or otherwise reinstating a full prohibition on exports of diesel fuel by Russian fuel producers, between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Actions that only reduce the permitted export volume or restrict the permitted destinations will not qualify unless they prohibit Russian fuel producers from exporting diesel fuel altogether. The exhaustion of the permitted 500,000-ton export volume will not qualify. The extension, renewal, or continuation of the existing ban beyond October 31, 2026 will not qualify, provided the October 10, 2026 relief remains in effect. Actions affecting only separate restrictions, including restrictions on diesel exports by entities other than fuel producers, restrictions on ma…
Sources
Related markets
- Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?
- Iran leader end of 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
- Will Alberta join the US?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.