Pennsylvania mail voters: party registration margin?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 18:57:30 UTC, Kalshi traders price D+37 to D+39.9 (24.0%), D+40 or more (18.0%), D+34 to D+36.9 (17.0%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Wed, 04 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| D+37 to D+39.9 | 24.0% | 24.0¢ | 76.0¢ |
| D+40 or more | 18.0% | 18.0¢ | 82.0¢ |
| D+34 to D+36.9 | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
| D+31 to D+33.9 | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| D+28 to D+30.9 | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| D+25 to D+27.9 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Below D+25 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $3K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for D+37 to D+39.9:
If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between 37 and 39.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the Democrat figure minus the Republican figure in the "Percent" column (share of mail ballots accepted) of the "Returned Mail Ballots by Party Registration" table on the Pennsylvania page of the UF Election Lab's 2026 Early Voting Tracker, as displayed to one decimal place at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026. The "Percent Returned" column is not used. If the page is unavailable at that time, the same percentages computed from the acceptdem, acceptrep and accept_none values for Pennsylvania in the UF Election Lab's 2026 early vote data file (https://election.lab.ufl.edu/data-downloads/earlyvote/2026/US.csv) and rounded to one decimal place are used. A negative value is a Republican lead. Each range includes both of its endpoints. Updates posted after that time are not counted.
Sources
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