North Carolina early voters: party registration margin?
As of Thu, 22 Oct 2026 15:43:38 UTC, Kalshi traders price D+8 or more (73.0%), D+6 to D+7.9 (8.0%), D+2 to D+3.9 (6.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Wed, 04 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| D+8 or more | 73.0% | 73.0¢ | 27.0¢ |
| D+6 to D+7.9 | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| D+2 to D+3.9 | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| D+0 to D+1.9 | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| D+4 to D+5.9 | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| R+2 to R+3.9 | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| R+0.1 to R+1.9 | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| R+4 or more | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for D+8 or more:
If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is at least 8 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the Democrat figure minus the Republican figure in the "Percent" column of the "Total Voted by Party Registration" table on the North Carolina page of the UF Election Lab's 2026 Early Voting Tracker, as displayed to one decimal place at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026. Total Voted includes in-person early votes and returned mail ballots. If the page is unavailable at that time, the same percentages computed from the voteddem, votedrep and voted_none values for North Carolina in the UF Election Lab's 2026 early vote data file (https://election.lab.ufl.edu/data-downloads/earlyvote/2026/US.csv) and rounded to one decimal place are used. A negative value is a Republican lead. Each range includes both of its endpoints. Updates posted after that time are not counted.
Sources
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