Nobel Prize in Literature: 2026
As of Thu, 08 Oct 2026 14:15:19 UTC, Kalshi traders price Cristina Rivera Garza (51.0%), Amitav Ghosh (28.0%), Gerald Murnane (28.0%). The market has $31K in volume and closes on Fri, 09 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cristina Rivera Garza | 51.0% | 51.0¢ | 49.0¢ |
| Amitav Ghosh | 28.0% | 28.0¢ | 72.0¢ |
| Gerald Murnane | 28.0% | 28.0¢ | 72.0¢ |
| Can Xue | 28.0% | 28.0¢ | 72.0¢ |
| Margaret Atwood | 25.0% | 25.0¢ | 75.0¢ |
| Anne Carson | 18.0% | 18.0¢ | 82.0¢ |
| Mircea Cărtărescu | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
| Thomas Pynchon | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Alexis Wright | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| César Aira | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Haruki Murakami | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Salman Rushdie | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $31K
- Liquidity: $31K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Cristina Rivera Garza:
If Cristina Rivera Garza has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature, then the market resolves to Yes.
Sources
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