Next leader of Germany's Union (CDU/CSU)?
As of Tue, 28 Jul 2026 21:37:21 UTC, Polymarket traders price Thorsten Frei (99.6%), Other (50.0%), [Placeholder 1] (50.0%). The market has $4K in volume and closes on Thu, 31 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thorsten Frei | 99.6% | 99.6¢ | 0.4¢ |
| Other | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| [Placeholder 1] | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| [Placeholder 2] | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| [Placeholder 3] | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| [Placeholder 4] | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| [Placeholder 5] | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| [Placeholder 7] | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Günter Krings | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 100.0¢ |
| Carsten Linnemann | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 100.0¢ |
| Nina Warken | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 100.0¢ |
| Michael Brand | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 100.0¢ |
| Alexander Hoffmann | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 100.0¢ |
| Alexander Dobrindt | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 100.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $4K
- Liquidity: $76K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
On July 18, 2026, Jens Spahn resigned as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after coming under mounting political pressure over his use of surrogacy to become a parent (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/). This market will resolve according to the first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following Jens Spahn. The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement that the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group has elected its next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after Jens Spahn. Nominations, agreements between Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder, and temporary, interim, or acting performance of the chair’s duties will not qualify. If the next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group after Jens Spahn is not announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.
Sources
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