New Zealand legislative election winner?
As of Sat, 17 Oct 2026 14:34:51 UTC, Polymarket traders price Labour Party (54.0%), National Party (45.5%), New Zealand First Party (0.6%). The market has $39K in volume and closes on Sun, 08 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour Party | 54.0% | 54.0¢ | 46.0¢ |
| National Party | 45.5% | 45.5¢ | 54.5¢ |
| New Zealand First Party | 0.6% | 0.6¢ | 99.4¢ |
| Green Party | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 99.9¢ |
| ACT New Zealand | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 99.9¢ |
| Te Pāti Māori | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 99.9¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $39K
- Liquidity: $175K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Sources
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