Midterms: Republican share of Black vote?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:26 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 6% (91.0%), Above 8% (72.0%), Above 9% (51.0%). The market has $13K in volume and closes on Sat, 06 Feb 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 6% | 91.0% | 91.0¢ | 9.0¢ |
| Above 8% | 72.0% | 72.0¢ | 28.0¢ |
| Above 9% | 51.0% | 51.0¢ | 49.0¢ |
| Above 10% | 36.0% | 36.0¢ | 64.0¢ |
| Above 12% | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Above 14% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Above 16% | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Above 18% | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $13K
- Liquidity: $13K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 6%:
If the Republican share of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 6%, then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the percentage shown in the Republican (or Rep.) column of the aggregate Black row in the national U.S. House exit poll table. The primary resolution source is the CNN figure displayed at exactly 12:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026. If unavailable, CNN remains the primary source for 24 hours after that time. If it remains unavailable, use CBS News followed by ABC News through 11:59 PM ET on November 7, 2026.
Sources
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