Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory?
As of Tue, 03 Nov 2026 15:06:00 UTC, Kalshi traders price Karen Bass, 2-4% (16.0%), Nithya Raman, 0-2% (11.0%), Karen Bass, 0-2% (10.0%). The market has $4K in volume and closes on Wed, 03 Nov 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karen Bass, 2-4% | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| Nithya Raman, 0-2% | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| Karen Bass, 0-2% | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Karen Bass, 4-6% | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Karen Bass, 6-8% | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Karen Bass, ≥12% | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Nithya Raman, 8-10% | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Nithya Raman, 2-4% | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Nithya Raman, 4-6% | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Karen Bass, 10-12% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Nithya Raman, 6-8% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Karen Bass, 8-10% | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Nithya Raman, 16-18% | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Nithya Raman, 12-14% | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Nithya Raman, 10-12% | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $4K
- Liquidity: $4K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Karen Bass, 2-4%:
If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is within 2% to 4%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by Karen Bass minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Karen Bass loses. If Karen Bass wins, the margin will be positive; if Karen Bass loses, the margin will be negative; if Karen Bass ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Karen Bass runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
Sources
Related markets
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