LA Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 10:43:34 UTC, Polymarket traders price Candidate A wins (50.0%), Other wins (50.0%), Raman 0-4% (21.5%). The market has $9K in volume and closes on Tue, 03 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate A wins | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Other wins | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Raman 0-4% | 21.5% | 21.5¢ | 78.5¢ |
| Bass 0-4% | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| Raman 8-12% | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| Raman 4-8% | 14.5% | 14.5¢ | 85.5¢ |
| Bass 4-8% | 12.5% | 12.5¢ | 87.5¢ |
| Raman 12-16% | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Bass 8-12% | 7.4% | 7.4¢ | 92.6¢ |
| Bass 12-16% | 4.5% | 4.5¢ | 95.5¢ |
| Raman 20+% | 4.3% | 4.3¢ | 95.8¢ |
| Raman 16-20% | 3.5% | 3.5¢ | 96.5¢ |
| Bass 20+% | 1.3% | 1.3¢ | 98.8¢ |
| Bass 16-20% | 1.1% | 1.1¢ | 98.9¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $9K
- Liquidity: $114K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
The general runoff election for the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the November 3, 2026 general runoff election for Mayor of Los Angeles. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this…
Sources
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