Israeli Legislative Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory
As of Wed, 28 Oct 2026 05:45:28 UTC, Polymarket traders price Likud 3%+ (58.5%), Other (50.0%), Likud 2-3% (29.5%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Wed, 28 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Likud 3%+ | 58.5% | 58.5¢ | 41.5¢ |
| Other | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Likud 2-3% | 29.5% | 29.5¢ | 70.5¢ |
| Yashar <1% | 22.5% | 22.5¢ | 77.5¢ |
| Together | 22.4% | 22.4¢ | 77.6¢ |
| Likud 1-2% | 20.3% | 20.3¢ | 79.8¢ |
| Yashar 3%+ | 19.5% | 19.5¢ | 80.5¢ |
| Yashar 1-2% | 19.0% | 19.0¢ | 81.0¢ |
| Likud <1% | 19.0% | 19.0¢ | 81.0¢ |
| Yashar 2-3% | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.1¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election. If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other”. If Together wins the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Together”. If any party other than Likud, Yashar, or Together wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by…
Sources
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