Israel x Iran ceasefire ends before Netanyahu out?

As of Mon, 26 Oct 2026 12:28:26 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (44.5%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Thu, 01 Jul 2027.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
Yes44.5%44.5¢55.5¢

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the ceasefire between Israel and Iran ends before Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If neither the end of the ceasefire nor Benjamin Netanyahu ceasing to be Prime Minister of Israel occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The ceasefire between Israel and Iran will be considered to have ended if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country after market creation. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does no…

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