Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
As of Fri, 23 Oct 2026 15:10:06 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (13.0%). The market has $75K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $75K
- Liquidity: $13K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza. This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm. An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alo…
Sources
Related markets
- Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
- How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- Iran leader end of 2026?
- NATO x Russia military clash by...?
- Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.