Israel Election: Arab party disqualified?
As of Wed, 28 Oct 2026 22:22:40 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (4.8%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Mon, 30 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4.8% | 4.8¢ | 95.2¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $17K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Elections to the 26th Knesset were held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Arab party is effectively disqualified from taking the seats it won in the 2026 Knesset election by the swearing-in of the 26th Knesset, or November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time, whichever comes first. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An Arab party is defined as Ra'am (United Arab List) or the Joint List. A disqualification is defined as any official action by Israeli authorities, taken after the October 27, 2026 election, that prevents an Arab party from taking the seats it won in the 26th Knesset. This includes, but is not limited to: an official determination that all votes cast for an Arab party’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated; the members elected on an Arab party’s list being barred from taking their seats in the Knesset; or an Arab party being forcibly dissolved or deregistered in a manner that prevents its elected members from taking their seats. The invalidation of votes at individual polling stations, recounts, or other corrections to the official election results will not qualify, even if they reduce the number of seats an Arab party receives or cause its list to fall below the electoral threshold. A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Isr…
Sources
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