How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 12?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 13:08:06 UTC, Polymarket traders price 25-29 (97.5%), 20-24 (1.6%), 35-39 (1.2%). The market has $11K in volume and closes on Mon, 19 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25-29 | 97.5% | 97.5¢ | 2.5¢ |
| 20-24 | 1.6% | 1.6¢ | 98.5¢ |
| 35-39 | 1.2% | 1.2¢ | 98.8¢ |
| 30-34 | 1.1% | 1.1¢ | 98.9¢ |
| <20 | 1.1% | 1.1¢ | 99.0¢ |
| 40+ | 0.4% | 0.4¢ | 99.7¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $11K
- Liquidity: $43K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from October 12, 2026, through October 18, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Sources
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