How many Senate seats will Independents win in the Midterms?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:23 UTC, Kalshi traders price At least 1 (24.0%), At least 2 (10.0%), At least 3 (8.0%). The market has $25K in volume and closes on Mon, 01 Feb 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1 | 24.0% | 24.0¢ | 76.0¢ |
| At least 2 | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| At least 3 | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $25K
- Liquidity: $25K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for At least 1:
If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party is at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes. A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records no political party designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the November 3, 2026 general election: Independent, Nonpartisan, No Party Preference, No Party Affiliation, Unaffiliated, Unenrolled, Undeclared, nomination by petition without a party designation, a declared write-in candidacy so recorded, or an equivalent. A candidate identified with a political party does not count, including a party whose registered name contains “Independent” such as the Independent Party of Oregon, and a candidate appearing on one ballot line without a designation and another with one. Caucus affiliation, endorsements and later party changes do not affect the count. All 35 U.S. Senate contests on the November 3, 2026 ballot count, including the Florida and Ohio special elections. No seat counts twice. Seats are counted from Designated Media Source calls as they stand at the Expiration time, not from Senate composition on any later date; the eight rank equally. A seat is counted when at least four have declared its winner with no contradictory declaration then outstanding; withdrawn or superseded declarations are disregarded. A seat not counted under that four-of-eight test is attributed to the candidate the state certifies as elected. A runoff seat i…
Sources
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