How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2028 election?
As of Tue, 03 Nov 2026 14:43:02 UTC, Kalshi traders price At least 42 (94.0%), At least 46 (94.0%), At least 47 (92.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Thu, 01 Feb 2029.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 42 | 94.0% | 94.0¢ | 6.0¢ |
| At least 46 | 94.0% | 94.0¢ | 6.0¢ |
| At least 47 | 92.0% | 92.0¢ | 8.0¢ |
| At least 44 | 92.0% | 92.0¢ | 8.0¢ |
| At least 48 | 85.0% | 85.0¢ | 15.0¢ |
| At least 49 | 80.0% | 80.0¢ | 20.0¢ |
| At least 50 | 74.0% | 74.0¢ | 26.0¢ |
| At least 51 | 65.0% | 65.0¢ | 35.0¢ |
| At least 52 | 55.0% | 55.0¢ | 45.0¢ |
| At least 53 | 46.0% | 46.0¢ | 54.0¢ |
| At least 54 | 35.0% | 35.0¢ | 65.0¢ |
| At least 55 | 23.0% | 23.0¢ | 77.0¢ |
| At least 56 | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| At least 58 | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| At least 60 | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for At least 42:
If the Democratic Party holds at least 42 seats in the U.S. Senate at the end of the day the new Congress first convenes after the November 7, 2028, general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Independent and unaffiliated members who caucus with Democrats will be included. Every voting seat in the Senate counts, including any seat not on the 2028 ballot. Vacant and disputed seats count toward no party.
Sources
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