How many Senate Republicans will vote to convict Trump?
As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 09:18:22 UTC, Kalshi traders price At least 1 (54.0%), At least 2 (42.0%), At least 3 (19.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Fri, 20 Apr 2029.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1 | 54.0% | 54.0¢ | 46.0¢ |
| At least 2 | 42.0% | 42.0¢ | 58.0¢ |
| At least 3 | 19.0% | 19.0¢ | 81.0¢ |
| At least 5 | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| At least 8 | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| At least 12 | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| At least 15 | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for At least 1:
If the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment is at least 1 before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. The first Senate roll-call vote after Issuance on whether Donald Trump is guilty or not guilty on an article of impeachment counts, whichever article is voted on first, and only Republican Senators voting guilty on that vote count. If no such vote occurs before Jan 20, 2029, the number is 0. A Senator is a Republican if the Senate lists them as a Republican on the day of the vote. Independent Senators do NOT count, even if they caucus with Republicans. The following do NOT count: The Senate votes of Feb 5, 2020 and Feb 13, 2021 A vote on a motion to dismiss, a point of order, or any other procedural question A vote on any later article, or in any later impeachment trial of Donald Trump
Sources
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