How many people will Trump deport in 2026?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 23:06:07 UTC, Polymarket traders price 400-500k (66.5%), 500-600k (12.3%), 300-400k (9.5%). The market has $124K in volume and closes on Mon, 01 Mar 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 400-500k | 66.5% | 66.5¢ | 33.5¢ |
| 500-600k | 12.3% | 12.3¢ | 87.7¢ |
| 300-400k | 9.5% | 9.5¢ | 90.5¢ |
| 900k-1m | 2.6% | 2.6¢ | 97.4¢ |
| 200-300k | 2.5% | 2.5¢ | 97.5¢ |
| 600-700k | 1.7% | 1.7¢ | 98.3¢ |
| <200k | 1.5% | 1.5¢ | 98.5¢ |
| >1m | 1.4% | 1.4¢ | 98.6¢ |
| 700-800k | 1.4% | 1.4¢ | 98.7¢ |
| 800-900k | 1.3% | 1.3¢ | 98.7¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $124K
- Liquidity: $80K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Sources
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