How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 00:37:02 UTC, Polymarket traders price 0 (75.5%), 1 (18.0%), 2 (3.1%). The market has $191K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 75.5% | 75.5¢ | 24.5¢ |
| 1 | 18.0% | 18.0¢ | 82.0¢ |
| 2 | 3.1% | 3.1¢ | 96.9¢ |
| 3 | 1.4% | 1.4¢ | 98.7¢ |
| 5 | 1.4% | 1.4¢ | 98.7¢ |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.7¢ | 99.4¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $191K
- Liquidity: $59K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of distinct qualifying Millennium Prize Problems for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Each qualifying problem is counted once, regardless of how many eligible AI labs announce a solution to it or how many announcements are made. The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order, the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun,…
Sources
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