How many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:26 UTC, Kalshi traders price At least 1 (40.0%), At least 2 (13.0%), At least 3 (7.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Sat, 03 Apr 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1 | 40.0% | 40.0¢ | 60.0¢ |
| At least 2 | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| At least 3 | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| At least 4 | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for At least 1:
If the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats is at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. A candidate is considered unaffiliated with a political party if the relevant election authority identifies the candidate as Independent, Nonpartisan, No Party Preference, No Party Affiliation, Unaffiliated, by petition without a party designation, or an equivalent no-party designation. Candidates identified with a political party do not count. Endorsements and post-election caucus affiliation do not affect the count.
Sources
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