How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:39:08 UTC, Polymarket traders price 2 (50 bps) (68.0%), 1 (25 bps) (20.5%), 3 (75 bps) (10.0%). The market has $9K in volume and closes on Thu, 31 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 (50 bps) | 68.0% | 68.0¢ | 32.0¢ |
| 1 (25 bps) | 20.5% | 20.5¢ | 79.5¢ |
| 3 (75 bps) | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| 4 (100 bps) | 0.8% | 0.8¢ | 99.3¢ |
| 5+ (125+ bps) | 0.4% | 0.4¢ | 99.7¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $9K
- Liquidity: $204K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Sources
Related markets
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