How many Democratic House Incumbents will not win their Primary?

As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 20:15:39 UTC, Polymarket traders price 10-12 (93.8%), 13-15 (4.8%). The market has $9K in volume.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
10-1293.8%93.8¢6.2¢
13-154.8%4.8¢95.2¢

Market details

Resolution rules

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September. This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections. An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state…

Sources

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