How many Cabinet members will Trump say he fired this year?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 20:59:20 UTC, Kalshi traders price TRUMPFIRE (87.0%), TRUMPFIRE (4.0%), TRUMPFIRE (3.0%). The market has $136K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| TRUMPFIRE | 87.0% | 87.0¢ | 13.0¢ |
| TRUMPFIRE | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| TRUMPFIRE | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| TRUMPFIRE | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| TRUMPFIRE | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| TRUMPFIRE | 0.0% | 0.0¢ | 100.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $136K
- Liquidity: $136K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for TRUMPFIRE:
If President Trump has announced that he asked for the resignation of, or fired, exactly 0 non-acting Cabinet members before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement will be considered to be made by President Trump if it is announced on President Trump's personal or official social media accounts, made by President Trump in a video or audio format, a direct quote from President Trump in written reporting, or otherwise written or released directly from President Trump. The withdrawal of a request for resignation, or the reversal of a decision to fire, does not negate the initial request for resignation or decision to fire for the purposes of this Contract. For the purposes of this Contract, it does not matter if the Cabinet member does not actually resign, is removed, or otherwise leaves the position. For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President's Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. An "acting" member of the Cabinet is not included.
Sources
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