Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:51:45 UTC, Polymarket traders price October 5 (95.1%), October 8 (94.0%), October 4 (85.0%). The market has $5K in volume and closes on Tue, 06 Oct 2026.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
October 595.1%95.1¢4.9¢
October 894.0%94.0¢6.0¢
October 485.0%85.0¢15.0¢
October 2073.5%73.5¢26.5¢
October 1872.6%72.6¢27.4¢
October 2450.0%50.0¢50.0¢
October 2349.5%49.5¢50.5¢
October 3149.0%49.0¢51.0¢
October 2647.5%47.5¢52.5¢
October 2747.5%47.5¢52.5¢
October 2947.5%47.5¢52.5¢
October 2846.5%46.5¢53.5¢
October 3046.5%46.5¢53.5¢
October 2246.0%46.0¢54.0¢
October 1740.0%40.0¢60.0¢

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Saudi Arabia on the specified date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Saudi Arabia. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Saudi Arabia do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Saudi Arabia” refers to the terrestrial territory of Saudi Arabia, including its internal waters. Saudi Arabia’s maritime territory and airspace ar…

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