FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?
As of Wed, 21 Oct 2026 09:04:58 UTC, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 (48.5%), September 30, 2027 (14.5%), June 30, 2027 (10.5%). The market has $42K in volume and closes on Sat, 01 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 48.5% | 48.5¢ | 51.5¢ |
| September 30, 2027 | 14.5% | 14.5¢ | 85.5¢ |
| June 30, 2027 | 10.5% | 10.5¢ | 89.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $42K
- Liquidity: $23K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for December 31, 2027:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants approval of intismeran autogene for any indication by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program. Differences in neoantigen composition between patients will not affect resolution. Changes to the product's formulation will not affect resolution, provided the FDA approves the product described above. Approval as part of a combination regimen will qualify. Approval for a narrower population than the one studied in INTerpath-001 will qualify. Approval for an indication other than melanoma will also qualify. Both standard and accelerated approval will qualify. An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New…
Sources
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