Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?
As of Tue, 15 Sep 2026 15:03:18 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (12.5%). The market has $7K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12.5% | 12.5¢ | 87.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $7K
- Liquidity: $848
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a frontier AI lab removes general public access in the United States to one of its previously publicly available AI models over safety, alignment, or security concerns by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Frontier AI labs refers to OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, and Meta, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions. Removals by any other company or organization will not qualify. A general removal of public access means the model is no longer available for use by the general public in the United States through any of the lab's ordinary public channels, including its consumer applications and self-serve API. Removal from a single channel while another public channel retains access, removals applying only to limited groups (e.g., foreign nationals), payment or pricing changes, and restrictions on particular capabilities or features of an otherwise accessible model will not qualify. A general removal qualifies even if access is retained by limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms, approved-access programs, or individuals with security clearance). Removal of individual modes, snapshots, or reduced-capability variants will not qualify while the model itself remains publicly accessible; however, if only reduced-capability variants (e.g., mini or nano variants) remain accessible, the model will be considered removed. A removal qualifies only if the lab, or an official…
Sources
Related markets
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
- What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?
- Anthropic lab leak by...?
- Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
- Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.