EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:09:06 UTC, Polymarket traders price 30M+ (91.5%), 31M+ (86.5%), 32M+ (86.0%). The market has $20K in volume and closes on Tue, 01 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30M+ | 91.5% | 91.5¢ | 8.5¢ |
| 31M+ | 86.5% | 86.5¢ | 13.5¢ |
| 32M+ | 86.0% | 86.0¢ | 14.0¢ |
| 33M+ | 69.5% | 69.5¢ | 30.5¢ |
| 34M+ | 39.5% | 39.5¢ | 60.5¢ |
| 35M+ | 16.5% | 16.5¢ | 83.5¢ |
| 36M+ | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| 37M+ | 2.3% | 2.3¢ | 97.7¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $20K
- Liquidity: $5K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
On October 1, 2026, Reuters reported that the United States had told France and Germany to release emergency diesel stocks or face a potential US diesel export ban, as Washington presses European countries to draw down their reserves to ease surging diesel prices. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-tells-france-germany-release-diesel-stocks-or-face-us-export-ban-sources-say-2026-10-01/ This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eurostat publishes a figure for the European Union’s closing stock of EU emergency stocks of gas oil and diesel oil for the month of November 2026 that is greater than or equal to the specified value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant figure is the value in Eurostat’s “Oil products stock levels - monthly data” dataset (nrg_stk_oilm) for: Geopolitical entity “European Union - 27 countries (from 2020)”; Standard international energy product classification “Gas oil and diesel oil”; Stock or flow “Closing stock - EU emergency”; Unit “Thousand tonnes”; Time “2026-11”. This market will resolve as soon as Eurostat first publishes a figure for November 2026. Revisions to that figure published afterward will not be considered unless in the case of obvious data integrity issues. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data in…
Sources
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