Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...?

As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 02:18:52 UTC, Polymarket traders price December 31 (16.5%), October 31 (9.7%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
December 3116.5%16.5¢83.5¢
October 319.7%9.7¢90.3¢

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eritrean military forces enter Ethiopia by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET in a military operation that establishes control over any portion of Ethiopian territory. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Eritrean military operation which remains on the ground inside the territory of Ethiopia for less than 48 hours will not qualify. Mere presence of Eritrean military forces within Ethiopia will not alone qualify, even if for longer than 48 hours. A consensus of credible reporting must demonstrate that such presence is or was part of a military operation which established control over a portion of Ethiopia. Only the entry of Eritrean military forces into the territory of Ethiopia must occur by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Where Eritrean military forces enter the territory of Ethiopia by the listed date, but on the listed date, at 11:59 PM ET, control has not yet been confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will remain open for 7 additional full calendar days (ET) to allow for confirmation. If, at the end of the seventh calendar day, no consensus of credible reporting indicates that the operation has established or did establish control over part of Ethiopia, this market will resolve to "No." No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by a consensus of credible reporting. Hybrid or "grey zone" operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are…

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