Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases this month?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:57 UTC, Kalshi traders price 1 or more (7.0%), 5 or more (5.0%), 2 or more (3.0%). The market has $60K in volume and closes on Sun, 08 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| 5 or more | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| 2 or more | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $60K
- Liquidity: $60K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for 1 or more:
If the total number of human plague cases reported in Irkutsk Oblast during Oct 2026 is at least 1, then the market resolves to Yes. Cases are determined at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date (November 8). Only cases that Rospotrebnadzor, Russia's federal public health agency, confirms after Issuance and before November 1, 2026 count. Cases newly reported during the window between November 1 and Expiration do not count, even if they are backdated to the specified time period. A case is a human infection with Yersinia pestis (plague in any form) in Irkutsk Oblast, including a posthumous confirmation, and each infected person counts once. Suspected cases, and illness described as pneumonia of undetermined etiology, do not count.
Sources
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