Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August
As of Mon, 21 Sep 2026 10:22:42 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above -0.40 (96.0%), Above -0.30 (91.0%), Above -0.20 (74.0%). The market has $15K in volume and closes on Mon, 28 Sep 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above -0.40 | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Above -0.30 | 91.0% | 91.0¢ | 9.0¢ |
| Above -0.20 | 74.0% | 74.0¢ | 26.0¢ |
| Above -0.10 | 62.0% | 62.0¢ | 38.0¢ |
| Above 0.10 | 26.0% | 26.0¢ | 74.0¢ |
| Above 0.00 | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| Above 0.20 | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $15K
- Liquidity: $15K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above -0.40:
If the Chicago Fed National Activity Index reported for for August 2026 is above -0.40, then the market resolves to Yes. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (“CFNAI”) refers to the headline monthly index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. It does not refer to the CFNAI three-month moving average (“CFNAI-MA3”) or the CFNAI Diffusion Index. This market will resolve using the value for August 2026 published in the first Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago release that reports the August 2026 CFNAI. Subsequent revisions will not affect settlement.
Sources
Related markets
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- CPI in September
- How high will inflation get this year?
- CPI in October
- Core CPI in October
- CPI YoY in November
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