California wealth tax defeats opposing propositions?

As of Tue, 18 Aug 2026 06:07:59 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (14.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Wed, 04 Nov 2026.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
Yes14.0%14.0¢86.0¢

Market details

Resolution rules

Propositions 40, 41, and 42 are California ballot measures currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property. Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

 If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market. If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No". The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolutio…

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