California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (Yes)
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:18:04 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes, ≥1% (26.0%), Yes, ≥4% (13.0%), Yes, ≥7% (9.0%). The market has $22K in volume and closes on Wed, 03 Nov 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, ≥1% | 26.0% | 26.0¢ | 74.0¢ |
| Yes, ≥4% | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Yes, ≥7% | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Yes, ≥22% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Yes, ≥13% | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Yes, ≥16% | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Yes, ≥19% | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Yes, ≥10% | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $22K
- Liquidity: $22K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Yes, ≥1%:
If the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election is at or above 1%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by Yes minus the vote share received by the option that finishes immediately behind Yes if Yes wins, or the option that finishes first if Yes loses. If Yes wins, the margin will be positive; if Yes loses, the margin will be negative; if Yes ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Sources
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