California Governor Election Margin of Victory
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 15:35:57 UTC, Polymarket traders price Other (50.0%), Person A (50.0%), Becerra 25-30% (33.6%). The market has $11K in volume and closes on Tue, 03 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Person A | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Becerra 25-30% | 33.6% | 33.6¢ | 66.5¢ |
| Becerra 20-25% | 31.5% | 31.5¢ | 68.5¢ |
| Becerra 15-20% | 28.5% | 28.5¢ | 71.5¢ |
| Hilton Wins | 12.4% | 12.4¢ | 87.6¢ |
| Becerra 0-10% | 8.8% | 8.8¢ | 91.2¢ |
| Becerra 30-35% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Becerra 10-15% | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Becerra 35-40% | 2.6% | 2.6¢ | 97.4¢ |
| Becerra 40%+ | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 99.9¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $11K
- Liquidity: $76K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the cou…
Sources
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