CA-49 House Election Margin of Victory
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 10:42:27 UTC, Polymarket traders price Person B (50.0%), Person A (50.0%), Other (50.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Tue, 03 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Person B | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Person A | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Other | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Democrat 30%+ | 38.6% | 38.6¢ | 61.4¢ |
| Democrat 20-25% | 38.4% | 38.4¢ | 61.7¢ |
| Democrat 25-30% | 37.5% | 37.5¢ | 62.5¢ |
| Democrat 0-5% | 37.2% | 37.2¢ | 62.8¢ |
| Democrat 15-20% | 37.1% | 37.1¢ | 62.9¢ |
| Democrat 10-15% | 37.0% | 37.0¢ | 62.9¢ |
| Republican Wins | 37.0% | 37.0¢ | 63.0¢ |
| Democrat 5-10% | 34.9% | 34.9¢ | 65.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
The 2026 CA-49 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be…
Sources
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