Auto-loan delinquencies in Q3 2026
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:58 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 4.8% (96.0%), Above 5.0% (92.0%), Above 5.2% (80.0%). The market has $7K in volume and closes on Tue, 10 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.8% | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Above 5.0% | 92.0% | 92.0¢ | 8.0¢ |
| Above 5.2% | 80.0% | 80.0¢ | 20.0¢ |
| Above 5.4% | 65.0% | 65.0¢ | 35.0¢ |
| Above 5.6% | 27.0% | 27.0¢ | 73.0¢ |
| Above 5.8% | 21.0% | 21.0¢ | 79.0¢ |
| Above 6.0% | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Above 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $7K
- Liquidity: $7K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 4.8%:
If the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 is above 4.8%, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the value reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit / Household Debt and Credit Data Bank for Auto Loans in the series “Percent of Balance 90+ Days Delinquent by Loan Type.” Use the first value reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for Q3 2026. Subsequent revisions will not affect the market.
Sources
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