Another NATO article 4 by...?
As of Wed, 29 Jul 2026 21:04:05 UTC, Polymarket traders price December 31 (23.5%), October 31 (1.3%). The market has $16K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 23.5% | 23.5¢ | 76.5¢ |
| October 31 | 1.3% | 1.3¢ | 98.7¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $16K
- Liquidity: $25K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
NATO's Article 4 allows any member to call for consultations with allies if it believes its territorial integrity, political independence, or security to be threatened. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any NATO member invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Article 4 is considered invoked as soon as a member formally requests consultations with NATO allies under Article 4, regardless of whether the request is later revoked. For example, Poland's request for consultations on September 10, 2025, or Estonia's request on September 24, 2025 would each qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If a member state only expresses intent to or is considering invoking Article 4, that alone does not suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO; authoritative statements from the requesting member government may also be used.
Sources
Related markets
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
- Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
- Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
- Putin out as President of Russia by...?
- Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.