Another commercial vessel struck in Black Sea by…?
As of Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:07:44 UTC, Polymarket traders price November 30 (81.5%), November 15 (76.5%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Tue, 01 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 81.5% | 81.5¢ | 18.5¢ |
| November 15 | 76.5% | 76.5¢ | 23.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $22K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on a commercial ship within the defined area between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The defined area consists of the Black Sea and the Kerch Strait, including ports and anchorages on the Black Sea coast. An incident occurring outside these waters will not qualify, including in the Sea of Azov, the Bosporus, or on rivers such as the Danube. No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seizures or boarding of a ship will not be considered. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, naval drone strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damage caused by mines will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the r…
Sources
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