Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 02:54:07 UTC, Polymarket traders price Remain 40–60% (98.7%), Other (50.0%), Remain 60–80% (0.9%). The market has $164K in volume and closes on Tue, 20 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Remain 40–60% | 98.7% | 98.7¢ | 1.3¢ |
| Other | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Remain 60–80% | 0.9% | 0.9¢ | 99.1¢ |
| Remain 20–40% | 0.4% | 0.4¢ | 99.7¢ |
| Remain 80%+ | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 100.0¢ |
| Leave wins | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 100.0¢ |
| Remain <20% | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 100.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $164K
- Liquidity: $146K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Alberta is scheduled to hold a provincial referendum on October 19, 2026. Question 10 asks: "Should Alberta remain a province in Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?" For the purposes of this market, "Remain" refers to the option that Alberta should remain a province in Canada, and "Leave" refers to the option that the Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on separation. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Remain" and "Leave" on Question 10. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Remain" and "Leave". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast on Question 10. If "Leave" receives more valid votes than "Remain", this market will resolve to "Leave wins". If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If "Remain" and "Leave" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Remain <20%". This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote tota…
Sources
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