5Y US Treasury yield on Nov 4, 2026?
As of Wed, 04 Nov 2026 11:13:43 UTC, Kalshi traders price 4.56% or above (99.0%), 4.58% or above (98.0%), 4.6% or above (98.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Wed, 04 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.56% or above | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| 4.58% or above | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| 4.6% or above | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| 4.62% or above | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| 4.64% or above | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| 4.66% or above | 94.0% | 94.0¢ | 6.0¢ |
| 4.68% or above | 83.0% | 83.0¢ | 17.0¢ |
| 4.7% or above | 77.0% | 77.0¢ | 23.0¢ |
| 4.72% or above | 76.0% | 76.0¢ | 24.0¢ |
| 4.74% or above | 59.0% | 59.0¢ | 41.0¢ |
| 4.76% or above | 44.0% | 44.0¢ | 56.0¢ |
| 4.78% or above | 23.0% | 23.0¢ | 77.0¢ |
| 4.82% or above | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| 4.84% or above | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| 4.8% or above | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for 4.56% or above:
If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.55% on Nov 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Nov 4, 2026, or one week following Nov 4, 2026.
Sources
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