2Y US Treasury yield on Nov 4, 2026?
As of Wed, 04 Nov 2026 12:06:40 UTC, Kalshi traders price 4.46% or above (97.0%), 4.56% or above (95.0%), 4.48% or above (94.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Wed, 04 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.46% or above | 97.0% | 97.0¢ | 3.0¢ |
| 4.56% or above | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| 4.48% or above | 94.0% | 94.0¢ | 6.0¢ |
| 4.5% or above | 92.0% | 92.0¢ | 8.0¢ |
| 4.54% or above | 92.0% | 92.0¢ | 8.0¢ |
| 4.58% or above | 90.0% | 90.0¢ | 10.0¢ |
| 4.52% or above | 89.0% | 89.0¢ | 11.0¢ |
| 4.6% or above | 71.0% | 71.0¢ | 29.0¢ |
| 4.62% or above | 65.0% | 65.0¢ | 35.0¢ |
| 4.64% or above | 29.0% | 29.0¢ | 71.0¢ |
| 4.66% or above | 23.0% | 23.0¢ | 77.0¢ |
| 4.72% or above | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| 4.68% or above | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| 4.74% or above | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| 4.7% or above | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for 4.64% or above:
If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.63% on Nov 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Nov 4, 2026, or one week following Nov 4, 2026.
Sources
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