10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 22, 2026?
As of Wed, 21 Oct 2026 22:18:37 UTC, Kalshi traders price 4.96% or above (99.0%), 5% or above (99.0%), 5.02% or above (99.0%). The market has $7K in volume and closes on Thu, 22 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.96% or above | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| 5% or above | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| 5.02% or above | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| 4.98% or above | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| 5.04% or above | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| 5.06% or above | 97.0% | 97.0¢ | 3.0¢ |
| 5.08% or above | 82.0% | 82.0¢ | 18.0¢ |
| 5.1% or above | 74.0% | 74.0¢ | 26.0¢ |
| 5.12% or above | 61.0% | 61.0¢ | 39.0¢ |
| 5.14% or above | 45.0% | 45.0¢ | 55.0¢ |
| 5.16% or above | 27.0% | 27.0¢ | 73.0¢ |
| 5.18% or above | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| 5.2% or above | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| 5.22% or above | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| 5.24% or above | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $7K
- Liquidity: $7K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for 4.96% or above:
If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.95% on Oct 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 22, 2026, or one week following Oct 22, 2026.
Sources
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