10Y US Treasury yield on Nov 4, 2026?
As of Wed, 04 Nov 2026 12:15:15 UTC, Kalshi traders price 4.76% or above (99.0%), 4.78% or above (99.0%), 4.8% or above (98.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Wed, 04 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.76% or above | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| 4.78% or above | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| 4.8% or above | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| 4.82% or above | 97.0% | 97.0¢ | 3.0¢ |
| 4.84% or above | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| 4.86% or above | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| 4.9% or above | 89.0% | 89.0¢ | 11.0¢ |
| 4.88% or above | 88.0% | 88.0¢ | 12.0¢ |
| 4.92% or above | 76.0% | 76.0¢ | 24.0¢ |
| 4.94% or above | 60.0% | 60.0¢ | 40.0¢ |
| 4.96% or above | 42.0% | 42.0¢ | 58.0¢ |
| 4.98% or above | 25.0% | 25.0¢ | 75.0¢ |
| 5% or above | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| 5.02% or above | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| 5.04% or above | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for 4.88% or above:
If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.87% on Nov 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Nov 4, 2026, or one week following Nov 4, 2026.
Sources
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