Bristol Bay sockeye run forecast for 2027
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 02:02:29 UTC, Kalshi traders price Between 43 and 48.99 million (50.0%), Between 37 and 42.99 million (31.0%), Between 49 and 55 million (9.0%). The market has $15K in volume and closes on Fri, 04 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Between 43 and 48.99 million | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Between 37 and 42.99 million | 31.0% | 31.0¢ | 69.0¢ |
| Between 49 and 55 million | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Above 55 million | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Between 29 and 36.99 million | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Below 29 million | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $15K
- Liquidity: $15K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Between 43 and 48.99 million:
If the preseason total run forecast issued by ADF&G for Bristol Bay sockeye salmon for the 2027 season is between 43 million and 48.99 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes. The relevant figure is the Bristol Bay-wide aggregate point estimate shown in the “Forecast” column on the row labeled “Total run.” The separate “Inshore Run” figure will not be used. The market also will not use the forecast range or prediction interval, escapement, harvestable-surplus figures, individual river or district forecasts, or the actual observed 2027 run. Only ADF&G’s initial non-preliminary preseason forecast will be used. In-season estimates, postseason run reconstructions, and revisions made after expiration will not affect resolution. If ADF&G provides only a forecast range without a point estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used. If ADF&G does not use the label “Total run,” the functionally equivalent Bristol Bay-wide figure, "projected total catch plus projected total escapement", will be used.
Sources
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