Which Senate races will be within 1 point?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 13:07:12 UTC, Kalshi traders price Michigan (18.0%), Kansas (16.0%), Maine (15.0%). The market has $6K in volume and closes on Fri, 18 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | 18.0% | 18.0¢ | 82.0¢ |
| Kansas | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| Maine | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| Alaska | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Iowa | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Texas | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Ohio (special) | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Nebraska | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| South Carolina | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Florida (special) | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| New Hampshire | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| North Carolina | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $6K
- Liquidity: $6K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Michigan:
If the margin of victory for the election winner in the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Michigan falls within 0 to 1 percentage points, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin is the difference between the winner's vote share and the second-place finisher's vote share, measured in percentage points. Zero indicates a tie. Certified official results are used, subject to the contract's Fully-Conducted Elections and accelerated-resolution provisions. For ranked-choice voting, the vote shares in the last round actually conducted are used.
Sources
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