How many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 22:29:03 UTC, Kalshi traders price At least 14 (90.0%), At least 15 (82.0%), At least 16 (74.0%). The market has $42K in volume and closes on Mon, 01 Feb 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 14 | 90.0% | 90.0¢ | 10.0¢ |
| At least 15 | 82.0% | 82.0¢ | 18.0¢ |
| At least 16 | 74.0% | 74.0¢ | 26.0¢ |
| At least 17 | 63.0% | 63.0¢ | 37.0¢ |
| At least 18 | 48.0% | 48.0¢ | 52.0¢ |
| At least 19 | 37.0% | 37.0¢ | 63.0¢ |
| At least 20 | 25.0% | 25.0¢ | 75.0¢ |
| At least 21 | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| At least 22 | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| At least 23 | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| At least 24 | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| At least 25 | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| At least 26 | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $42K
- Liquidity: $42K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for At least 14:
If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates is at least 14 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes. A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Republican designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the November 3, 2026 general election; a recognized state affiliate, any one of several ballot lines, or a declared write-in candidacy so recorded all qualify. Caucus affiliation, endorsements and later party changes do not affect the count: a member elected without a Republican designation who caucuses with Republicans is not counted, and one elected as a Republican candidate who later leaves remains counted. All 35 U.S. Senate contests on the November 3, 2026 ballot count, including the Florida and Ohio special elections. No seat counts twice. Seats are counted from Designated Media Source calls as they stand at the Expiration time, not from Senate composition on any later date; the eight rank equally. A seat is counted when at least four have declared its winner with no contradictory declaration then outstanding; withdrawn or superseded declarations are disregarded. A seat not counted under that four-of-eight test is attributed to the candidate the state certifies as elected. A runoff seat is counted when that contest is called. Designated Media Source declarations. For United States based elections, this Contract may be resolved on an accelerated basis if (A) at least four (4) of the eight (…
Sources
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