Will a pneumonic plague case be reported in the U.S. this year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 04:55:23 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before January 1, 2027 (8.0%), Before December 1, 2026 (7.0%), Before November 1, 2026 (5.0%). The market has $96K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before January 1, 2027 | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Before December 1, 2026 | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Before November 1, 2026 | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $96K
- Liquidity: $96K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before January 1, 2027:
If a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague in the United States is officially reported by a Source Agency after Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The disease is human pneumonic plague specifically. Bubonic or septicemic plague without pneumonic involvement, unspecified plague, and animal cases do not qualify. A case must be confirmed in the United States; a U.S. citizen diagnosed elsewhere does not count. Imported cases diagnosed and reported in the United States qualify and need not be linked to the Russian outbreak. The first initial official confirmation must occur after Issuance and before midnight ET at the start of January 1, 2027. Symptom onset or infection before the deadline is insufficient if confirmation occurs later.
Sources
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