When will Trump rename an ocean?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 00:12:52 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Dec 1, 2026 (8.0%), Before Nov 1, 2026 (6.0%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Tue, 08 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $3K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Dec 1, 2026:
If Donald Trump has taken any signed executive action renaming any ocean after Issuance and before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address the topic in the document's operative provisions, title, or official White House summary. Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without policy impact do not qualify unless specifically included. Actions that only incidentally mention the topic, statements without formal action, actions by cabinet members, legislative proposals without executive action, and signing statements do not qualify. The action must be publicly announced or documented by a Source Agency before expiration. Ocean means the Atlantic, Pacific, Indian, Arctic, or Southern Ocean. The action must adopt or direct adoption of a different name for United States official use; renaming only a gulf, sea, bay, or lake does not qualify. An action covering only the portion of an ocean within United States jurisdiction qualifies. Adoption by other countries or an international body is not required.
Sources
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