How many states will redistrict before the midterms?
As of Fri, 09 Oct 2026 13:33:18 UTC, Kalshi traders price Below 8 (93.0%), E9 (4.0%), E11 (2.0%). The market has $23K in volume and closes on Mon, 01 Feb 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below 8 | 93.0% | 93.0¢ | 7.0¢ |
| E9 | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| E11 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| E8 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| E10 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Above 12 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| E12 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $23K
- Liquidity: $23K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Below 8:
If below 8 distinct U.S. states undergo congressional redistricting before the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, “undergo congressional redistricting” means satisfying the Payout Criterion of the REDISTRICTING contract. “After Issuance” in the REDISTRICTING contract is treated as “after July 1, 2025.” REDISTRICTING contract: https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/contract_terms/REDISTRICTING.pdf
Sources
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