How many mpox clade Ib cases will be reported in the United States this year?
As of Thu, 10 Sep 2026 18:32:06 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 10 (85.0%), Above 15 (71.0%), Above 20 (49.0%). The market has $10K in volume and closes on Fri, 08 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 10 | 85.0% | 85.0¢ | 15.0¢ |
| Above 15 | 71.0% | 71.0¢ | 29.0¢ |
| Above 20 | 49.0% | 49.0¢ | 51.0¢ |
| Above 25 | 32.0% | 32.0¢ | 68.0¢ |
| Above 30 | 30.0% | 30.0¢ | 70.0¢ |
| Above 35 | 25.0% | 25.0¢ | 75.0¢ |
| Above 40 | 24.0% | 24.0¢ | 76.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $10K
- Liquidity: $10K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 10:
If the total number of mpox clade Ib cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 10, then the market resolves to Yes. Cases are determined at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date (January 8). Cases that actually occur between the end of the specified time period and Expiration do not count, but newly reported cases during this window do count if they are backdated to 2026. See the full rules for how Source Agencies are prioritized. This market refers exclusively to human cases.
Sources
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